Price & Probability ?Price & Probability Real-time chart showing Underlying asset price and UP token probabilities over a rolling time window.
Main Chart (dual y-axis) Left axis: Underlying price in USD. Right axis: probability (0–1) for Mkt (Polymarket mid price) and Model (kNN predicted probability). Click legend labels to show/hide lines.
Strip Lanes (toggleable) ESS — effective sample size of kNN neighbors. Edge UP — model prob minus market price. Green = upside edge, red = downside. Vol Rank — realized volatility percentile rank. Net Pos — net contract position.
Interactions Hover for crosshair + tooltip. Click legend to toggle lines. Click strip pills to add/remove lanes.
Red regions = data gaps. Yellow dashed verticals = market window boundaries.
Order Book ?Order Book — UP token Prices in cents, sizes in contracts.
Left — Level Size (±10 levels) Per-level liquidity. Green = bids, red = asks. Bright bars = BBO.
Right — Cumulative Depth (±20 levels) Total contracts from BBO outward.